The Taliban biting back at Pakistan signifies a dramatic shift in relations between the two countries, with a deep historical backdrop. This tension has evolved from Pakistan’s longstanding support for the Taliban, dating back to the 1990s, to the current hostility seen on the ground. The Afghan Taliban, once a strategic ally nurtured by Pakistan, is now mobilizing forces to confront its former patron, marking a significant chapter in the geopolitical struggle in South Asia.
Taliban Biting Back: A Growing Threat to Pakistan
Taliban biting back has now reached a critical point, as reports confirm that around 15,000 Taliban fighters are marching toward the Pakistan border, particularly targeting the Mir Ali area in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. This escalation is a direct response to the recent Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan, specifically in Paktika province. These strikes, which Pakistan claimed were aimed at dismantling terrorist hideouts, have sparked outrage in Kabul, with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime condemning the attacks and vowing retaliation.
This marks a pivotal moment in the complex relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban. What was once seen as a strategic partnership has now turned into an existential threat for Pakistan, which is grappling with the combined pressures of both the Afghan Taliban and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The latter has been waging an insurgency against Pakistan from the tribal areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Pakistani Airstrikes Trigger Retaliation from Taliban Forces
The immediate cause of this brewing conflict was the Pakistani airstrikes, which targeted what Pakistan identified as militant hideouts. The airstrike resulted in significant civilian casualties, with reports claiming 46 deaths, including women and children. The Taliban, which now controls Afghanistan, denounced the attacks as “barbaric” and a violation of Afghan sovereignty.
In retaliation, Taliban forces, reportedly numbering around 15,000, are marching from key Afghan cities, including Kabul, Kandahar, and Herat, towards the Pakistani border. This move marks a sharp escalation in the tensions that have been simmering for months. As Afghanistan’s Taliban government fortifies its stance against Pakistan, the situation has quickly spiraled into a full-blown military confrontation.
A Dual Taliban Threat to Pakistan’s Stability
Pakistan now finds itself in the uncomfortable position of facing two Taliban groups—the Afghan Taliban, in power in Kabul, and the TTP, which is actively targeting Pakistani forces. The TTP’s mission is clear: to establish an Islamic Emirate within Pakistan, mirroring the Afghan Taliban’s rule. Since the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, Pakistan has seen a significant uptick in terror attacks, largely attributed to the TTP’s increased capabilities and confidence.
According to the Center for Research and Security Studies, fatalities from terror attacks in Pakistan surged by 56% in 2023 compared to the previous year. Over 1,500 people lost their lives, including 500 security personnel. This spike in violence can be directly attributed to the Taliban’s return to power and its strengthening of the TTP’s insurgency.
Pakistan’s Growing Hostility Toward the Afghan Taliban
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have reached a new low. The Pakistani government has accused Kabul of fostering cross-border terrorism, especially as the TTP continues to operate from Afghan territory. In retaliation, Pakistan has imposed stricter policies, including expulsions of Afghan migrants and trade restrictions. Islamabad has also strengthened military operations against the TTP, but has been unable to curb the group’s increasing influence.
The turning point in these relations was Pakistan’s failed expectations that the Afghan Taliban would suppress the TTP. Pakistan had hoped that its alliance with Kabul’s new regime would result in the stabilization of the region. However, the Afghan Taliban’s refusal to act against the TTP has instead fueled tensions, making it clear that the Taliban, both in Afghanistan and Pakistan, are increasingly aligned against Pakistan’s state apparatus.
The Historical Roots of Pakistan’s Taliban Strategy
The origins of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban date back to the mid-1990s. During the Soviet-Afghan War, Pakistan played a pivotal role in supporting Afghan mujahideen fighters, setting the stage for the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan. Islamabad, seeking strategic depth in its geopolitical rivalry with India, continued its support for the Taliban well into the 2000s, even as the group harbored al-Qaida and its leader, Osama bin Laden.
In 1996, Pakistan was one of only three countries to officially recognize the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) played a critical role in training and advising Taliban forces, providing them with military support, including special forces units. Despite international condemnation and UN sanctions, Pakistan continued to back the Taliban, viewing the group as a key ally in its fight against Indian influence in the region.
Pakistan’s Proxy War in Kashmir and Taliban Involvement
Pakistan’s use of the Taliban as a strategic tool against India is another facet of this complex relationship. Groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which have been responsible for numerous terror attacks in India, were trained and supported by Taliban-controlled areas in Afghanistan. This proxy war against India, aimed at destabilizing the region, has been a key component of Pakistan’s long-standing policy of using militant groups as strategic assets.
However, this policy has backfired, leading to the rise of a dual Taliban threat—one that operates within Pakistan through the TTP and the other that now governs Afghanistan. As both Taliban factions are aligned, Pakistan is facing a unique and grave security challenge. The Pakistani government’s failure to contain the TTP and its inability to rein in the Afghan Taliban have created a volatile situation.
The Fallout of Pakistan’s Long-Standing Taliban Policy
Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban, once seen as a strategic asset, is now threatening to destabilize the country. The Taliban biting back is a reminder of the long-term consequences of Pakistan’s support for militant groups. What was once an alliance based on shared strategic interests has now become a serious liability, with the Afghan Taliban, alongside the TTP, posing an existential threat to Pakistan’s internal security.
Pakistan’s reliance on the Taliban as a counterforce against India has also backfired, leaving it in a vulnerable position. As Islamabad continues to deal with the fallout of its long-standing policy of supporting militant groups, the country is faced with the grim reality of dealing with a double-edged sword—the very forces it once nurtured are now threatening its stability.
Pakistan’s efforts to manage the Taliban have resulted in unforeseen consequences. The Taliban, nurtured by Pakistan for decades, has now become a formidable threat, both internally through the TTP and externally via the Afghanistan regime. Pakistan’s challenge is not just dealing with one Taliban faction but two, and this dual threat is poised to reshape the security dynamics of the region in the years to come.