In a dramatic turn of events in the Syrian civil war, rebel forces executed one of their most significant advances in recent history. The offensive, which began on November 27, led to the capture of key cities, including Aleppo and Hama, and culminated in the fall of Damascus on Sunday. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled the country as the Army acknowledged the collapse of the government.
The operation, described as a “blitzkrieg,” has stunned both the region and the world. Rebel forces, united under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida affiliate, spearheaded the offensive. The group, once dismissed as one of the most radical factions in the rebellion, has emerged as a decisive player in Syria’s power dynamics.
Who Are the Rebels?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, was established in 2011 under the name Jabhat al-Nusra. Initially operating as an associate of al-Qaida, the group became infamous for its deadly efficiency and its jihadist ideology. Its name translates to “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.”
Despite its extremist origins, HTS underwent a significant transformation in 2016 under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Golani distanced the group from al-Qaida, removed hardline officials, and pledged to adopt pluralism and religious tolerance. According to an AP report, these changes aimed to rebuild HTS’s image and consolidate its power.
By 2017, HTS controlled much of northwest Syria and established a “salvation government” to oversee day-to-day governance. While the Islamic State (IS) sought a global caliphate, HTS focused on establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule within Syria.
How Did HTS Seize Territory?
HTS’s early strategy involved coaxing local village councils into accepting its authority. Mimicking a functioning state, the group began issuing identity cards to residents, a tactic highlighted in a United Nations report cited by The New York Times. Despite these efforts, HTS’s rule has often been met with resistance from residents protesting arbitrary arrests, heavy taxation, and the suppression of dissent.
Geopolitical dynamics have also played a crucial role in the group’s survival and expansion. Turkish bases in Idlib and artillery positioned along the Turkish-Syrian border have buffered HTS-held territories from Syrian government attacks, according to Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria.
A turning point came after the 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. The uneasy calm in northwestern Syria allowed HTS to regroup and professionalize its forces. The group adopted better training methods and acquired more advanced weaponry, enabling it to absorb smaller rebel factions. This consolidation transformed HTS into the dominant force in northwestern Syria.
The Road Ahead
The capture of Damascus marks a significant milestone in Syria’s civil war and raises questions about the future trajectory of the conflict. HTS, now at the forefront of the rebellion, remains a controversial and polarizing entity. While its leaders claim to embrace a more moderate stance, its fundamentalist agenda and history of extremism cast a shadow over its intentions.
As Syria grapples with this new phase of its prolonged conflict, the international community watches closely, uncertain about the implications of HTS’s rise for the region’s stability and global security.