China’s deepening demographic crisis is taking an increasingly visible toll on its education system. A sharp decline in birth rates has led to the closure of thousands of kindergartens and a significant drop in school enrollments across the country. In 2023 alone, the number of kindergartens fell by 14,808, bringing the total to 274,400, as the Chinese Ministry of Education reported. This marked the second consecutive year of decline, underscoring the ongoing demographic shift that poses profound implications for the future of China’s economy and society.
The impact of the demographic downturn on education is starkly evident in the declining enrollment numbers. The number of children attending kindergarten dropped for the third consecutive year in 2023, falling by 11.55%, or 5.35 million, to 40.9 million. The number of primary schools also fell, decreasing from 5,645 to 143,500, representing a 3.8% reduction. These trends reflect the broader demographic challenges facing China: a dwindling birth rate coupled with an increasingly ageing population, both of which threaten to undermine the country’s economic growth prospects.
The roots of this crisis can be traced back to decades of restrictive population policies, most notably the infamous one-child policy. Introduced in 1980 to curb population growth, this policy has had far-reaching consequences. The impact of limiting families to just one child became evident over time, with a shrinking workforce, an ageing population, and a profound gender imbalance. Although the policy was relaxed in 2016, allowing couples to have two children, and further revised in 2021 to permit three children, these measures still need to reverse the trend. The economic burdens of raising children and changing social attitudes toward family size have made many Chinese couples reluctant to expand their families.
The consequences of China’s demographic shift extend beyond just birth rates. The country also faces a rapidly ageing population. By the end of 2023, the number of people aged 60 and older had approached 300 million. According to reports from the state-run Xinhua News Agency, this figure is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035 and reach 500 million by 2050. This growing elderly population places immense pressure on China’s social security system, especially in a slowing economy.
Interestingly, the demographic shift has also prompted a transformation in the use of educational facilities. An increasing number of kindergartens have been converted into care centres for senior citizens, with many kindergarten staff members transitioning to roles in elder care. This adaptation highlights the shift in societal needs and priorities as China’s population ages. The rise in the elderly population is a direct outcome of the one-child policy, which left many elderly individuals dependent on limited family support and the state’s social security system. The burden of elder care is becoming a significant challenge for the government, especially as pension and healthcare costs continue to escalate.
The Chinese government recently raised the retirement age in response to the growing demands of elder care and the shrinking working-age population. The retirement age for men has been increased from 60 to 63, while for female office workers, it has been raised from 55 to 58. These changes aim to alleviate some of the financial pressures associated with an ageing population and extend individuals’ working years to sustain economic productivity.
The situation has also raised questions about the future of early childhood education in China. As demographic realities shift, kindergarten operators are forced to adapt to new challenges. They should expand early childhood education to include children under the age of three and establish an integrated education system to cater to the evolving needs of society. National Health Commission data from 2021 revealed that over 30% of Chinese families with infants and toddlers need childcare services, but only 5.5% have enrolled their children in nurseries or pre-kindergartens. This significant gap indicates an opportunity for policymakers to focus on improving access to and affordability of childcare services, which could encourage more couples to consider having children.
China’s demographic challenge is also prompting the government to rethink its approach to marriage and divorce. The authorities are looking at ways to make it easier for people to marry and harder to divorce, to stabilize family structures and encourage higher birth rates. These measures are part of a broader set of strategies to tackle the country’s shrinking and ageing population, although their long-term effectiveness remains to be determined.
The repercussions of China’s demographic crisis are far-reaching. With a declining birth rate, the country has lost its position as the world’s most populous nation to India, which overtook China in 2023. China reported just nine million births in 2023, the lowest number since records began in 1949. This sharp decline in births, coupled with a steadily increasing death rate, has resulted in a population decrease of over two million people in 2023, bringing the total population down to 1.4 billion. The demographic trends have raised serious concerns about the future economic stability of China, as a shrinking workforce and an ageing population threaten to hamper economic growth and productivity.
In addition to economic concerns, the demographic changes are expected to have significant social implications. The pressure on younger generations to support an ageing population will likely increase, creating a heavier financial and emotional burden on the working-age population. This situation could lead to increased stress and a lower quality of life for many, as younger individuals struggle to balance work, family responsibilities, and the care of elderly relatives.
The Chinese government’s efforts to reverse the demographic trends have been unsuccessful. Financial incentives for families to have more children, such as tax breaks, extended maternity leave, and subsidies, have been introduced in various regions—however, more than these measures are needed to address rural and economic barriers that discourage larger families. High living costs, particularly in urban areas, along with the rising education and healthcare costs, have made many young couples hesitant to have children. Furthermore, changing social norms, with a growing emphasis on personal freedom and career aspirations, have also contributed to declining birth rates.
The ongoing demographic crisis in China represents a complex challenge that requires a multifaceted response. Addressing the root causes of the crisis will require changes to population policy and broader economic and social reforms. Improving access to affordable childcare, creating a more supportive environment for working parents, and addressing the financial burdens associated with raising children are all critical steps that could help to alleviate the crisis. Additionally, reforming elder care services to ensure that the ageing population is adequately supported without placing undue pressure on younger generations will be essential for maintaining social stability.
China’s demographic crisis is a stark reminder of the long-term consequences of population control policies. As the country grapples with the challenges of a shrinking and ageing population, it must find innovative solutions to support its elderly while encouraging younger generations to start families. The future of China’s economy and society will depend on how effectively it can adapt to these demographic realities and create a sustainable path forward for its citizens.