Shigeru Ishiba’s Last Stand: A New Era for Japan’s Leadership in 2024
Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to become Japan’s prime minister after winning a closely fought contest on Friday in his fifth and what he called final attempt to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The 67-year-old political veteran prevailed over hard-line nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote in what was one of the most unpredictable leadership elections in decades, with a record nine candidates in the field.
The leader of the LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era, is essentially assured of becoming the next premier because of its majority in parliament. A special session of parliament is scheduled for Tuesday to vote Ishiba into office.
“We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again,” an emotional Ishiba said in a speech to LDP lawmakers after the result was announced.
The scramble to replace Premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced he would step down over a series of scandals that plunged the LDP’s ratings to record lows. Ishiba, a self-proclaimed lone wolf whose contrarian views and spats with colleagues contributed to four previous failed leadership bids, has long been popular with the general public. But he said this was his “final battle.”
With the LDP facing a general election sometime in the next 13 months, analysts said Ishiba’s selection suggests some in the party appear to have put aside personal grievances to harness his public appeal. They have “gravitated towards a popular figure who does well in media appearances and isn’t afraid to criticize his own party when he thinks they’re in the wrong,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.
The yen strengthened against the dollar following Ishiba’s victory, reversing a fall on news he would face the run-off against Takaichi, a monetary dove and fiscal expansionist.
Ishiba faces a raft of challenges at home and abroad. He must quell anger over rising living costs and simmering discontent about his scandal-plagued party and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fueled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea. His approach to diplomacy with Japan’s closest ally, the United States, will be in focus given he has repeatedly called for a more balanced relationship with Washington.
During his campaign, Ishiba called for the creation of an Asian NATO, an idea that could draw ire from Beijing and has already been dismissed by a senior U.S. official as hasty. The U.S. ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, congratulated Ishiba, posting on X (formerly known as Twitter) that he looked forward to working with him to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance. A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, asked about Ishiba’s appointment, said Beijing hopes Japan has an “objective and correct” understanding of China.
Ishiba entered parliament in 1986 after a short banking career. His outspoken views have earned him enemies in the LDP. He was sidelined by outgoing Prime Minister Kishida, becoming a dissenting voice in the party who enjoyed broad support from LDP rank-and-file members as well as the public.
Ishiba has rebelled on policies including the increased use of nuclear energy, a contentious subject due to the devastating meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011, and has criticized his party for supporting Japan’s ban on married couples using separate surnames. Hideki Masui, the head of the nuclear energy lobby Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, said on Friday that he hoped Japan’s new leadership would continue promoting nuclear power, which he said was essential to the country’s energy security.
To solidify his rule over a fractured party, Ishiba will need to draw from a wide base to form his cabinet, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at The Asia Group Japan. “If he just rewards the people who supported him, that’s going to cause a lot of trouble with the people who supported Takaichi and the people who dislike him,” Nishimura said.
Ishiba is expected to announce his cabinet after Tuesday’s parliament session. His ability to navigate these complex internal dynamics will be crucial in ensuring stability and unity within the LDP, particularly as the party gears up for the upcoming general election.
Ishiba’s ascension marks a significant shift in Japanese politics. Known for his candor and willingness to challenge the status quo, his leadership could signal a new direction for the LDP and Japan as a whole. As he prepares to take office, the eyes of the nation and the world will be on Ishiba, watching to see how he will address the myriad challenges facing Japan, from economic issues to international relations.
In conclusion, Shigeru Ishiba’s journey to become Japan’s prime minister has been long and fraught with challenges, but his persistence and popularity with the public have finally paid off. As he takes the helm, his ability to manage both domestic and international pressures will be tested. With a focus on truth, courage, and sincerity, Ishiba’s leadership promises a new chapter for Japan’s political landscape.