The anticipated arrival of the monsoon in Kerala has been delayed by seven days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Climate scientists and meteorologists have cautioned that the onset of the monsoon is likely to be weak due to the severe Cyclone Biparjoy, which has disrupted the weather patterns. As a result, the progression of the monsoon across the country is expected to be sluggish during its initial phase.
In the past 24 hours, cloud cover has increased over the Southeast Arabian Sea, with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) measuring less than 200 w/m2. The westerly winds extend to mid-tropospheric levels over the Southeast Arabian Sea, and the lower-level westerlies have strengthened by approximately 19 knots. Consequently, Kerala has experienced widespread rainfall in the last 24 hours. Taking these conditions into account, the IMD has officially declared the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala.
The IMD has also stated that conditions are favorable for the monsoon’s further progress into various parts of the central Arabian Sea, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, the southwest and central regions of the Bay of Bengal, the northeastern states, and the remaining areas of Kerala within the next 48 hours.
Delayed Monsoon Arrival in Kerala Raises Concerns: Cyclone Biparjoy Impact Feared
Climate experts and meteorologists have attributed the weakened monsoon onset to the formation of Cyclone Biparjoy over the southeast Arabian Sea. They have explained that the cyclone’s track has drawn away the convective activity along its path, resulting in the weakening of the monsoon flow. It is anticipated that the monsoon flow will regain its strength once the cyclone dissipates.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President (Climate and Meteorology) at Skymet Weather, highlighted that the cyclone has brought rainfall to parts of Kerala by pushing moisture towards the west coast due to its expansive size. Palawat further mentioned that westerly winds are expected to intensify in the coming days as the cyclone moves northward, gathering moisture from its surroundings. Additionally, cloud cover is likely to increase as the cyclone progresses.
In light of the weak monsoon onset, Palawat advised farmers to consider commencing sowing activities after a week or ten days. He emphasized that once the rains pick up, farmers should proceed with sowing to minimize potential crop damage. Palawat also cautioned that June rainfall may be below normal due to the delayed onset.
Northeast India is expected to experience increased rainfall as a low-pressure area develops over the Bay of Bengal. This weather system is anticipated to draw the monsoon winds towards the northeastern region.
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, explained that Cyclone Biparjoy, although positioned away from the coast, has absorbed a significant amount of moisture. He noted that the rainfall observed in Kerala is the result of the monsoon picking up the residual moisture from the cyclone.
It is worth mentioning that last year, the IMD declared the onset of the monsoon despite not meeting all the criteria for a traditional onset. The monsoon season typically commences in Kerala around June 1 and gradually advances northward, covering the entire country by July 15. According to the IMD’s initial forecast on May 16, the monsoon was predicted to arrive in Kerala on June 4, with a model error of +/-4 days.
The monsoon holds critical importance for India’s economy, as approximately 51% of the country’s farmed area, contributing to 40% of its agricultural production, relies on rainfall. Furthermore, around 47% of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. A prosperous monsoon directly correlates with a thriving rural economy.
Earlier reports by HT suggested that the monsoon’s progress might be hindered after its expected arrival in Kerala around June 4, with the possibility of a low-pressure area forming over the Arabian Sea a couple of days later. Officials at the time acknowledged the high variability in model outputs. Experts assert that a delayed onset of the monsoon has minimal impact on overall rainfall patterns.
Alarm bells ring as monsoon arrival in Kerala faces significant delay.
The IMD has forecasted a “normal” monsoon at 96% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, calculated from 1971 to 2020, with a margin of error of +/-5%. However, private forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted “below normal” rainfall at 94% of LPA, also with a margin of error of +/-5%. To determine the monsoon’s arrival, the IMD follows a well-defined process that considers various parameters, including rainfall, cross-equatorial flow of winds, and cloud cover.
There is a nearly 100% probability of El Nino conditions during the monsoon, as stated by the IMD last month. This El Nino event is expected to persist until the following year and is characterized by unusually warm waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is highly correlated with warmer summers, droughts, and weakened monsoon rains in India. The 2023 El Nino is anticipated to develop following a triple dip La Nina event (2020-22), which is characterized by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
In conclusion, the delayed arrival of the monsoon in Kerala, coupled with the anticipated weak onset, has raised concerns among climate scientists and meteorologists. The impact of Cyclone Biparjoy has played a significant role in disrupting the monsoon flow, leading to a sluggish progression. It is hoped that as the cyclone dissipates and weather patterns stabilize, the monsoon will regain its strength and provide much-needed rainfall across the country.