As Maharashtra braces for another round of high-stakes assembly elections, the political landscape is rife with speculation over who will take the reins of the state if the Mahayuti alliance secures a victory. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) form the Mahayuti alliance, and their leaders have left the decision of the next Chief Minister open-ended, sparking intense interest and raising questions about the balance of power within the coalition.
On Sunday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, while unveiling the BJP manifesto in Mumbai, reiterated this ambiguity. He stated, “At present, Eknath Shinde is the Chief Minister, but after the polls, all three constituents of the Mahayuti will sit together and decide the next CM.” This statement, coupled with other subtle messages from the top BJP leadership, suggests that the party is positioning itself as the dominant player in the coalition. Many interpret this as an indication of BJP’s intent to reinstate current Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to Maharashtra’s top post if the alliance comes to power.
This is not the first time Amit Shah has alluded to the Chief Minister issue. Last week, during a rally in Sangli, he spoke about the public’s desire to see the “return of the Mahayuti and Fadnavis.” His comments were seen as a subtle endorsement of Fadnavis, who served as Chief Minister of Maharashtra from 2014 to 2019 and was widely considered a successful and effective administrator.
The BJP’s desire to project itself as the “big brother” within the alliance also found support from some senior party leaders. Speaking anonymously, a senior BJP leader asserted, “At the grassroots level, the sentiment within the right wing is Modi for the country and Fadnavis for Maharashtra.” The leader’s remarks seem to reflect an undercurrent within the party and the RSS that views Fadnavis as the rightful heir to the Chief Minister’s post, should the Mahayuti win.
Despite these hints from the BJP, the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, has maintained a clear stance on the matter. A senior Cabinet minister from the Sena recently stated, “For us, Eknath Shinde is the CM and will be the CM after the polls too.” The Shiv Sena appears determined to hold onto the Chief Minister’s chair, relying on Shinde’s leadership, under which the party broke away from the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and allied with the BJP.
Meanwhile, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Ajit Pawar, has adopted a cautious approach, refraining from taking a firm stand on the leadership issue. NCP state chief Sunil Tatkare emphasized that their current focus is on ensuring the Mahayuti alliance’s victory, noting, “The larger issues like CM, etc., are best left to the top leadership after the elections.” Sources within both the Sena and NCP have indicated that the Chief Minister’s decision will depend on several factors, including the individual party’s performance in the polls, and caution against pre-empting any decision at this stage.
The Mahayuti’s goal is to present a united front against the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which includes the Congress, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. However, beneath this façade of unity, the internal power struggle between the Mahayuti constituents is apparent. The BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP all have aspirations for the top post, but the question of who ultimately takes charge will depend on electoral outcomes and the balance of power within the coalition.
The growing support for Fadnavis among BJP supporters and party insiders is likely rooted in his perceived achievements during his tenure as Chief Minister between 2014 and 2019. Many believe that Maharashtra witnessed bold administrative reforms during his leadership, benefiting the state significantly. Moreover, several BJP and RSS members still hold that Fadnavis was forced to make a political sacrifice in 2022 when he agreed to serve as Deputy Chief Minister under Eknath Shinde to bring the Sena into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This sentiment, that Fadnavis deserves a return to the top post if the BJP regains power, has only grown stronger.
Leading up to the 2019 assembly elections, when the BJP was in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, Fadnavis was projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate, and his state-wide Janadesh Yatra helped the BJP emerge as the single-largest party with 105 seats. The undivided Shiv Sena secured 56 seats. However, a post-poll disagreement over the Chief Minister’s position led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, with Uddhav Thackeray assuming the role of Chief Minister. This coalition government, however, lasted only two-and-a-half years before Eknath Shinde, along with 41 out of 56 Shiv Sena MLAs, rebelled and formed a government with the BJP, bringing the NDA back into power.
Fadnavis, seen as a key strategist behind the rebellion, offered to allow Shinde to become Chief Minister while he remained out of the government. However, BJP’s national leadership urged Fadnavis to take up the Deputy Chief Minister role to provide stability and administrative experience to the new government. Despite his willingness to serve, Fadnavis faced a significant setback in the subsequent Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP won only nine of Maharashtra’s 48 seats, down from 23 in 2019.
Following the Lok Sabha election debacle, Fadnavis reportedly requested the party leadership to relieve him of his duties in the government, allowing him to focus on party organization. His request, however, was declined, as the leadership argued that his departure could destabilize the government at a crucial time when the Central Government was focused on executing major projects in Maharashtra. The BJP is now in a phase of introspection and course correction, as the upcoming assembly elections loom large.
For Fadnavis to reclaim the Chief Minister’s post, the BJP must emerge as the largest party within the Mahayuti alliance. If the party falls short of expectations, both Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar could have significant leverage in deciding the Chief Minister, leading to potential power struggles. As things stand, the BJP appears to be leaving the CM position open-ended, possibly to avoid alienating allies ahead of the elections. However, there is little doubt that the party is gearing up to make a strong push for Fadnavis to return to the top job.
The upcoming elections are likely to be closely contested, with both the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi alliances seeking to sway voters with promises of development, governance, and stability. The outcome of these elections will determine not only the political direction of Maharashtra but also the fate of its leadership. Whether Fadnavis, Shinde or a new face from the alliance will take charge is a question that remains unanswered for now—a question that Maharashtra’s voters will ultimately have a significant role in deciding.
The intricate balance of coalition politics in Maharashtra means that nothing can be taken for granted. The BJP’s ambitions, the Sena’s determination to retain power, and the NCP’s strategic ambiguity all add layers of complexity to the Chief Ministerial question. As the election season heats up, one thing is clear—Maharashtra is in for a political battle, with power dynamics, ambitions, and alliances all at play, and the Chief Minister’s seat as the ultimate prize.