According to Gautam Shah, founder of Goldilocks Premium Research, gold is forecasted to rally to $3,350 over the next year, representing a potential 20–22% increase from its current price of approximately $2,700. Shah attributes this optimistic outlook to growing geopolitical tensions and ongoing financial uncertainties, both of which are expected to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
In an exclusive interview with NDTV Profit, Shah emphasized that gold has already outperformed equity markets over the past year and is poised to continue delivering stronger returns. “Benchmark indices like the NSE 500 and Nifty will likely remain range-bound, limiting opportunities for significant gains. In contrast, gold offers more upside potential in the current environment,” Shah explained.
Buy Gold During Dhanteras for Value Appreciation
Shah also recommended that investors consider buying gold during Dhanteras, a traditional time for purchasing precious metals. “Whether you follow the cultural aspect or not, it’s an excellent time to buy. Even at $2,700, gold presents substantial value,” he said. Shah pointed out that gold’s recent performance has shown a steady, predictable rise rather than a speculative rally, signaling room for further growth. “We haven’t yet entered a parabolic phase in either gold or silver prices,” he noted, suggesting that higher gains may still be on the horizon.
Shah advised investors to adjust their portfolio allocations to reflect the changing market dynamics. “Historically, people allocated 3–5% of their portfolios to gold and silver but given the uncertainties in global markets and the favorable buying conditions, I recommend increasing this to 10–15%,” he said.
Silver: A High-Beta Asset with Strong Industrial Demand
Shah described silver as a high-beta investment, meaning it is more volatile and can deliver greater returns in times of market fluctuation. In addition to benefiting from financial instability, silver has strong industrial demand, particularly from the electric vehicle (EV) sector. “Silver’s dual role—both as an industrial commodity and a store of value—positions it well to thrive in the current climate,” he said.
Looking ahead, Shah expects silver prices to climb to $41 in the next 12–24 months, with the potential to reach $50 within three years. “Silver is more volatile than gold, often experiencing intraday swings of 3–6%, driven not only by geopolitical events but also by industrial consumption trends,” he explained.
When asked how investors should allocate their capital between gold and silver, Shah recommended varying the strategy based on the investor’s risk tolerance.
– For conservative investors: “I would suggest allocating 60–65% to gold and 30–35% to silver,” he advised.
– For aggressive investors: “Those willing to take on more risk should reverse the ratio, with 55–60% of the investment in silver, given its higher growth potential in the next 12–18 months.”
Crude Oil Outlook: A Commodity Play with Limited Downside
Shah also shared his views on crude oil, identifying it as another commodity worth watching closely. NYMEX crude, currently priced around $70, could rise to $90–95 over the next year, according to his forecast. “At this level, crude has limited downside risk, making it a potentially lucrative play over the next 6–8 months,” he said.
Domestic Capital Resilience Despite FII Outflows
Despite recent outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), Shah remains optimistic about India’s domestic capital flows. “Domestic liquidity remains robust, and any FII exit will likely be temporary as global markets stabilize,” he predicted.
Sectoral Opportunities in Equities
While Shah believes gold and silver will outperform equities, he highlighted certain sectors that still offer strong potential in the stock market. “I am particularly bullish on financial services, IT, pharma, and metals,” he said, listing his top equity picks:
– SBI (State Bank of India)
– Bajaj Finance
– JSW Steel
– JSW Energy
In summary, Shah encourages investors to take advantage of current opportunities in precious metals, crude oil, and selective equities. “Precious metals are still undervalued in this cycle, and with gold and silver yet to hit their peak, the time to invest is now,” he concluded.