China has given the green light to construct the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, located on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau. The ambitious project has sparked widespread concerns about its ecological and geopolitical implications, particularly in downstream nations like India and Bangladesh.
The proposed dam, situated in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, is designed to generate an estimated 300 billion kilowatt hours of electricity annually. This capacity is more than three times the 88.2 billion kWh generated by the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydropower facility, located in central China.
Chinese state media, Xinhua, highlighted the project’s potential to support China’s carbon neutrality goals, stimulate engineering-related industries, and create jobs in Tibet. However, the dam’s construction raises significant questions about its environmental impact and potential effects on the millions who depend on the river downstream.
Engineering Marvel or Environmental Threat?
The Yarlung Zangbo drops dramatically by 2,000 meters over a 50-kilometer stretch, presenting enormous hydropower potential alongside daunting engineering challenges. Reports indicate that at least four tunnels, each 20 kilometers long, will be drilled through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert half of the river’s flow for energy generation.
The estimated cost of the project is expected to exceed the 254.2 billion yuan (£27.8 billion) spent on constructing the Three Gorges Dam. While the Three Gorges Dam displaced 1.4 million people, Chinese authorities have yet to disclose how many will be affected by this new undertaking. Adding to the concerns, the site lies along a tectonic plate boundary, making it highly susceptible to earthquakes.
Chinese officials assert that hydropower projects in Tibet, which holds over a third of the nation’s hydroelectric potential, will have minimal environmental and downstream impacts. However, critics remain unconvinced, pointing to the region’s unique biodiversity and the potential for significant ecological disruption.
Concerns from India and Bangladesh
The Yarlung Zangbo transforms into the Brahmaputra River as it flows into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states before entering Bangladesh. Both nations have expressed apprehension about the dam’s potential to alter the river’s flow, triggering flash floods or creating water scarcity downstream.
Ninong Ering, an Indian lawmaker and member of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, voiced these concerns in parliament. “We cannot trust our ‘neighbor.’ You never know what they can do,” he warned. Ering emphasized the dual threats of the river’s diversion causing drought or an unregulated release of water leading to catastrophic floods in India’s northeastern states.
Geopolitical Implications
India’s concerns are further exacerbated by the dam’s location near the contested region of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as part of southern Tibet. The strategic significance of controlling water resources in the region has added a new layer of complexity to Sino-Indian relations.
The dam’s approval comes amid ongoing tensions between the two nations, which have clashed over border disputes in recent years. For Bangladesh, which relies on the Brahmaputra for agriculture and livelihoods, any significant alteration in water flow could spell disaster for millions.
Unanswered Questions
While China touts the project as a step forward in clean energy production, critical details remain unclear. Authorities have yet to address the full extent of displacement or provide a comprehensive assessment of the environmental and seismic risks associated with the project. For downstream nations, the uncertainty surrounding the dam’s potential impacts has amplified calls for greater transparency and international dialogue.
As construction moves forward, the world watches closely, weighing the promise of renewable energy against the risks to regional stability and ecological balance.