Ukraine’s Hopes For NATO Membership Tied To The U.S. Elections

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Ukraine's fate relies on U.S. Elections
U.S. President Joe Biden Shakes Hands wWth Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has expressed hope that the United States will send positive signals regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations following the upcoming U.S. elections. He believes that the outcome of the vote could create a favourable environment for peace talks with Russia. The United States, as Ukraine’s key military, financial, and political ally, plays a crucial role in determining Ukraine’s future. However, concerns are mounting that a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming elections could jeopardize Washington’s multi-billion-dollar support for Kyiv.

In anticipation of the elections, Zelensky has been on a diplomatic offensive, seeking to strengthen Western support for Ukraine as it continues its fight against Russian aggression. The war, which is now entering its third year, has led Zelensky to push for international backing, particularly from NATO. This month, he introduced his “Victory Plan,” which centres on the proposal for an “immediate” invitation for Ukraine to join the U.S.-led NATO military alliance.

“After the election, we hope for a more positive reaction from the United States,” Zelensky stated at a press briefing in Kyiv. He emphasized that his optimism was not necessarily linked to a change in U.S. leadership but rather to a shift in focus after the elections. “The attention of the United States is currently on the elections, and I think they don’t want to take unnecessary risks,” said the Ukrainian leader, whose remarks were released on Tuesday after being held under embargo.

During the press conference, Zelensky also spoke about his diplomatic relationships with key European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. While he mentioned his personal rapport with Scholz, Zelensky also highlighted Germany’s reluctance regarding Ukraine’s NATO membership. “It is a fact that the German side is sceptical about us joining NATO. They are afraid of the NATO-Germany issue in terms of the Russian reaction,” he remarked, pointing to Germany’s concerns about potential retaliation from Moscow if Ukraine is allowed to join the alliance.

Zelensky noted that countries like France and Britain appear to support Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. However, the positions of other NATO members, including Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, seem contingent upon the stance taken by the United States. As Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance, Zelensky reiterated that his country is not pursuing nuclear weapons—a significant statement following recent remarks in which he appeared to suggest that Ukraine should either gain NATO membership or acquire nuclear capabilities.

Historically, Ukraine held the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. In a bid to promote international security, Ukraine surrendered these weapons in exchange for guarantees of safety from both Russia and the United States. Reflecting on this decision, Zelensky expressed his frustration: “We gave away nuclear weapons. We did not get NATO. All we got was a full-scale war and many victims, so today we have only one way out—we need NATO because we don’t have the weapons that can stop Putin.”

When questioned about whether Russia might be ready for peace negotiations, Zelensky pointed out that much depends on the results of the upcoming U.S. elections. “First of all, it depends on the elections in the United States. I think they [Russia] will be watching the policy of the United States,” he stated. Zelensky added that, based on his conversations with both Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, he expects a clear stance from Washington shortly after the elections. “They will not wait until January,” he emphasized, implying swift action by the U.S. regardless of the election outcome.

U.S. Elections To Decide The Fate Of Ukraine

The upcoming U.S. elections could potentially have a significant impact on the continuation of American support for Ukraine. Former President Donald Trump has previously expressed scepticism regarding Washington’s financial and military assistance to Kyiv. His return to power could create obstacles for Ukraine, which remains embroiled in intense battles with Russian forces in the east and south. Nevertheless, Zelensky described his meetings with Trump and Harris as “good” and “positive.” He acknowledged Trump’s doubts but remained optimistic about their discussions, also praising his meetings with Vice President Harris.

Peace Talks On Board?

There are currently no indications that either Ukraine or Russia is open to comprehensive peace talks to end the conflict that began in February 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that any negotiations would require Ukraine to concede further territory in its eastern and southern regions as a condition for a ceasefire. Zelensky, however, remains adamant that he will not agree to any territorial concessions to achieve a peace deal, nor will he engage in direct talks with Putin. Addressing the UN Security Council last month, Zelensky stated that Moscow “can only be forced into peace,” highlighting the need for international pressure on Russia.

On the battlefield, Russian forces have maintained a strategic advantage due to their superior manpower and advanced equipment. Despite these challenges, Ukraine has shown resilience and determination to continue resisting Russian aggression. However, Russian attacks continue to inflict casualties on Ukrainian civilians. On Tuesday, Russian drone and artillery strikes killed five people, including a child, in the eastern regions of Sumy and Donetsk, according to local officials.

Zelensky’s diplomatic efforts ahead of the U.S. elections underscore the importance of international support for Ukraine’s struggle against Russia. As the conflict drags into its third year, the Ukrainian leader remains steadfast in his pursuit of greater military assistance and diplomatic backing from Western allies. The U.S. elections could mark a pivotal moment in shaping the future of this war—one that could either strengthen Ukraine’s hand in negotiations or complicate its path to peace. Zelensky’s vision for Ukraine’s future lies firmly in its integration with NATO and Western institutions, as he believes that only through such alliances can his country guarantee its security and sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression.

 

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